Bourstad stock market simulations - Summary of the markets for the week ended on February 14, 2025

Stocks up and bonds down in the first week of the 2025 Bourstad Challenge

The first week of the 2025 Bourstad Challenge was profitable for equities, while bond prices were down. In Canada, manufacturing sales rose by 0.3%, below economists' expectations of a 0.7% increase. Data was also released on building permits in the residential sector, which jumped by 28.6% in December, particularly in British Columbia and Ontario; in Quebec, building permits fell by -9.1%. In the United States, the consumer price index for January 2025 shows an annual increase of 3.0%, up 0.1%; the annual rate for the basket excluding energy and food reaches 3.3%, also up 0.1%. The industrial price index for January was also published, reaching an annual rate of 3.5%. Over the coming week, we'll be watching: in Canada, the consumer price index for January (Tuesday), industrial prices for January (Thursday) and retail sales for December (Friday); in the United States, housing starts and building permits for January (Wednesday) and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index (Friday). We will also continue to monitor the trade war that President Trump's United States is preparing to unleash against most of the world's countries.

The six stock markets we follow ended the week higher. The NASDAQ 100 recorded the biggest gain, up 2.9%. The Paris Bourse followed close behind, up 2.6%. The New York and Shanghai stock exchanges advanced by 1.5% and 1.3% respectively. The Tokyo Stock Exchange gained 0.9%, while the Toronto Stock Exchange closed the week with a modest 0.2% gain.

Yields on 10-year government bonds are up in three of the four top-rated countries we track. Higher yields mean lower bond prices, given the inverse relationship between yields and bond prices. U.S. bond yields, the market's main benchmark, are down -2 bps at 4.48% (1 basis point or bps = 0.01%). The Canadian bond yield rises by 2 bps, leaving the Canadian rate 138 bps lower than the US rate. Germany's bond yield rises by 6 bps to 2.43%. Japan's bond yield jumps 5 bps to 1.36%.

On the commodities market, three of the four commodities we track are up. The biggest rise is seen in copper, up 2.7%; copper is also the commodity in our tracking universe with the biggest rise since the start of 2025, at 17.1%. Corn also recorded a significant gain, up 1.7%. Gold continued its upward trend, rising by 0.8% and approaching the 2,900 US dollar (USD) threshold. Finally, US oil (WTI) is down -0.4% for the week.

In the crypto-currency sector, the two cryptos we follow are up: bitcoin by 1.5% and ethereum by 6.1%.

As of February 14, it costs 1.1¢ CAD less to buy one US dollar than it did on February 7. The euro and yen are evolving divergently against Uncle Sam's dollar, with the single European currency up 1.6% and the Japanese currency down -0.6%.

See the detailed table by following this link:

https://iclf.ca/DL/BT25_sommaire_marches_250214.pdf

Paul Bourget
Project Director, Bourstad
CIRANO
paul.bourget@cirano.qc.ca

About CIRANO (www.cirano.qc.ca )

The Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis of Organizations (CIRANO) is a multidisciplinary, liaison and transfer research center, whose mission is to accelerate the transfer of knowledge between the research community and users in industry and public services.

About BOURSTAD (www.bourstad.ca )

The Bourstad program is an activity of the Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis of Organizations (CIRANO) which receives support from many partners for this financial education project: the Autorité des marchés financiers, its main partner, TD Bank, CFA Montreal , the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO), Les Affaires, Finance Montreal, TMX Group, Hyprasoft, Groupe Investissement responsable and QuoteMedia.