Bourstad stock market simulations - Summary of the markets for the week ended on April 18, 2025

Only the US dollar down this week

Equities, bonds, commodities and crypto-currencies all ended the week higher. In Canada, we noted the Bank of Canada's decision to leave its key rate unchanged at 2.75%. Statistics Canada also published the inflation rate for March, which stood at an annual rate of 2.3% for the full basket, down -0.3% on the previous month; for the basket excluding food and energy, the rate was 2.8%, down -0.1% on February 2025. In the United States, retail sales rose by 1.4% in March, in line with economists' expectations. Also, the Federal Reserve released statistics on industrial production, which declined by -0.3% in March 2025; these data also show that industrial capacity utilization fell over the month from 78.2% to 77.8%, a decline of -0.4%. Over the coming week, we'll be watching: in Canada, March industrial prices (Tuesday) and February retail sales (Friday); in the U.S., March new home sales and building permits (Wednesday), March durable goods orders (Thursday) and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (Friday). Elsewhere in the world, we'll be keeping an eye on Standard and Poor's Purchasing Managers' Indices for Japan and the Eurozone, and on Eurozone international trade data for February.

Four of the six stock markets we follow ended the week higher. The Tokyo Stock Exchange posted the biggest gain, up 3.4%. The Toronto and Paris stock exchanges followed with gains of 2.6%; the Canadian stock market benefited particularly from the strong performance of metals and oil. The Shanghai Stock Exchange advanced by 1.2%, and seems to be faring better than the US bourses. The only two stock exchanges to fall were the American ones: the New York Stock Exchange was down -1.5% and the NASDAQ 100 was down -2.3%.

Yields on 10-year government bonds are down for the four top-rated countries we track. Lower yields mean higher bond prices, given the inverse relationship between yields and bond prices. U.S. bond yields, the market's main benchmark, are down -16 bps at 4.33% (1 basis point or bps = 0.01%). The Canadian bond yield is also down -13 bps, leaving the Canadian rate 119 bps lower than the U.S. rate. Germany's bond yield fell by -10 bps to 2.47%. Japan's bond yield fell by -3 bps to 1.31%.

On the commodities market, three of the four commodities we follow are up. Copper jumped 5.9%, as several favorable developments in red metal production were announced during the week. Oil rises sharply by 5.2% as US companies abandon renewable energy projects. Gold is up 2.8% to close above 3,300 USD for the first time. Corn was the only commodity to fall, down -1.4%.

In the crypto-currency sector, the two cryptos we follow are up: bitcoin by 0.8% and ethereum by 1.2%.

On April 18, it cost 0.3¢ CAD less to buy one US dollar than on April 11. The euro and yen are also rising against Uncle Sam's dollar: the single European currency by 0.3% and the Japanese currency by 1.0%.

See the detailed table by following this link:

https://iclf.ca/DL/BTTT_sommaire_marches_250418.pdf

Paul Bourget
Project Director, Bourstad
CIRANO
paul.bourget@cirano.qc.ca

About CIRANO (www.cirano.qc.ca )

The Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis of Organizations (CIRANO) is a multidisciplinary, liaison and transfer research center, whose mission is to accelerate the transfer of knowledge between the research community and users in industry and public services.

About BOURSTAD (www.bourstad.ca )

The Bourstad program is an activity of the Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis of Organizations (CIRANO) which receives support from many partners for this financial education project: the Autorité des marchés financiers, its main partner, TD Bank, CFA Montreal , the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO), Les Affaires, Finance Montreal, TMX Group, Hyprasoft, Groupe Investissement responsable and QuoteMedia.