Bourstad stock market simulations - Summary of the markets for the week ended on April 25, 2025

Stocks up and commodities down over the past week

Stocks, crypto-currencies and the US dollar ended the week higher. In Canada, Statistics Canada has published data that showed a -0.4% decline in retail sales between January and February 2025; this drop was particularly due to declines in 4 sub-sectors: automobile and parts sales, building materials sales, furniture sales and clothing sales. In the United States, growth in economic activity slowed according to data compiled by S&P Global for the composite index calculated on the basis of surveys of supply managers. Also in the U.S., the preliminary report on durable goods orders for March shows growth of 9.2% between February and March 2025. Over the coming week, we'll be watching: in Canada, monthly gross domestic product in February (Wednesday); in the U.S., the Conference Board's household confidence index in April (Tuesday); annualized first-quarter gross domestic product and personal consumption expenditure inflation in March (Wednesday), and employment data in April (Friday). Elsewhere in the world, we'll be paying attention to the release of first-quarter growth and the March unemployment rate in the Eurozone; in Japan, several statistics will be published for March, including retail sales, industrial production and the unemployment rate.

The six stock markets we follow ended the week higher. The biggest rise was seen in the NASDAQ 100, which jumped 6.4%, followed by the New York Stock Exchange, which advanced 4.6%. The Paris Bourse was also on the rise, up 3.4%, followed by the Tokyo Stock Exchange, up 2.8%. With an advance of 2.1%, the Toronto Stock Exchange is practically back where it started, at the level it had reached on December 31, 2024. The Shanghai Stock Exchange ended the week with an advance of 0.6%.

Yields on 10-year government bonds are up for two of the four top-rated countries we track, while Germany's bond yield remains unchanged. Higher yields mean lower bond prices, given the inverse relationship between yields and bond prices. The U.S. bond yield, the market's main benchmark, fell by -9 bps to 4.24% (1 basis point or bps = 0.01%). The Canadian bond yield is up 4 bps, making the Canadian rate 107 bps lower than the U.S. yield. Germany's bond yield remains unchanged at 2.47%. Japan's bond yield rises by 3 bps to 1.34%.

In the commodities market, three of the four commodities we follow are down. Copper is the only one up, with a gain of 2.2%; the week saw the biggest decline in Chinese inventories of this metal since 2003. Gold is down -0.2%, but remains above the USD 3,300 mark. Corn was down -1.0%, but remains at a high level compared with its fluctuation over the past year. Oil is down -2.6% as Saudi Arabia cuts the selling price of its Asian exports by USD 2.3$.

In the crypto-currencies sector, the two cryptos we follow are up sharply: bitcoin by 12.9% and ethereum by 13.2%.

On April 25, it cost 0.2¢ CAD more to buy one US dollar than on April 18. The euro and yen are also down against Uncle Sam's dollar: the single European currency by -0.3% and the Japanese currency by -1.0%.

See the detailed table by following this link:

https://iclf.ca/DL/BTTT_sommaire_marches_250425.pdf

Paul Bourget
Project Director, Bourstad
CIRANO
paul.bourget@cirano.qc.ca

About CIRANO (www.cirano.qc.ca )

The Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis of Organizations (CIRANO) is a multidisciplinary, liaison and transfer research center, whose mission is to accelerate the transfer of knowledge between the research community and users in industry and public services.

About BOURSTAD (www.bourstad.ca )

The Bourstad program is an activity of the Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis of Organizations (CIRANO) which receives support from many partners for this financial education project: the Autorité des marchés financiers, its main partner, TD Bank, CFA Montreal , the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO), Les Affaires, Finance Montreal, TMX Group, Hyprasoft, Groupe Investissement responsable and QuoteMedia.