During the week, stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies ended higher,
while bonds and the US dollar were down. In Canada, the trade deficit narrowed
in May 2025, falling from ‑$7.6 billion in April to -$5.9 billion in May.
In the US, job creation was strong in June, with 147,000 jobs added. According
to Randall Forsyth of Barron's, there are several factors that make this result
less impressive than it appears at first glance. S&P Global released its
manufacturing PMI index, which stood at 49.0 in June, up 0.5 from May; this
report remained in contraction for the fourth consecutive month. Elsewhere in
the world, inflation in the Eurozone remained stable at an annual rate of 2.0%,
up 0.1% from May. S&P Global also released its manufacturing PMI index for
China, which rose above 50 in June to 50.4; the 50 mark is the threshold
between contraction and growth: above 50 is growth. Over the next week, we will
be watching: in Canada, the Ivey PMI index for June (Tuesday) and June
employment data (Friday); in the US, the SME confidence index for June
(Tuesday) and wholesale sales for May (Wednesday). Elsewhere in the world, retail
sales for May in the Eurozone and the consumer price index in China.
Five of the six stock markets we track were up this week. The US markets
posted the strongest gains, with the New York Stock Exchange up 1.7% and the
NASDAQ 100 up 1.5%. The Shanghai Stock Exchange followed closely with a 1.4%
increase, while the Toronto Stock Exchange advanced 1.3%. The Paris Stock
Exchange rose modestly by 0.1%. The only stock market to decline was the Tokyo
Stock Exchange, which fell -0.9%.
Yields on 10-year government bonds are up in three of the four highly
rated countries we track, while Japanese bond yields remain unchanged. A rise
in yields means that bond prices are falling, given the inverse relationship
between bond yields and prices. The US bond yield, the main benchmark rate in
the market, rose by 7 basis points to 4.35% (1 basis point = 0.01%). The
Canadian bond yield rose by 3 basis points, putting the Canadian yield 105
basis points below the US yield. The yield on German bonds rose by 2 bps to
2.61%. The Japanese bond yield remained unchanged at 1.44%.
In the commodities market, three of the four commodities we track are
up. US oil (WTI) is up 2.3%. Corn is up 2.1%, which market experts attribute to
the fact that ownership of the crop has passed from farmers to commercial
companies. The other commodity on the rise is gold, which has returned above
the USD 3,300 threshold. Copper is the only commodity in our universe to
decline, falling -1.2%.
In the cryptocurrency sector, the two cryptos we track are up: Bitcoin is
up 0.6% and Ethereum is up 2.7%.
As of July 4, it costs
0.8¢ CAD less than on June 27 to buy a US dollar. The euro and the yen are also
up against the US dollar, with the single European currency gaining 0.5% and
the Japanese currency 0.1%.
See the detailed table by following this link:
https://iclf.ca/DL/BTTT_sommaire_marches_250704.pdf
Paul Bourget
Project Director, Bourstad
CIRANO
paul.bourget@cirano.qc.ca
About CIRANO (www.cirano.qc.ca )
The Center for
Interuniversity Research and Analysis of Organizations (CIRANO) is a
multidisciplinary, liaison and transfer research center, whose mission is to
accelerate the transfer of knowledge between the research community and users
in industry and public services.
About BOURSTAD (www.bourstad.ca )
The Bourstad program
is an activity of the Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis of
Organizations (CIRANO) which receives support from many partners for this
financial education project: the Autorité des marchés financiers, its main partner,
TD Bank, CFA Montreal , the Canadian Investment
Regulatory Organization (CIRO), Finance Montreal, TMX Group, Hyprasoft, Groupe Investissement responsable and
QuoteMedia.