Bourstad stock market simulations - Summary of the markets for the week ended on July 4, 2025

Stocks up, bonds down

During the week, stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies ended higher, while bonds and the US dollar were down. In Canada, the trade deficit narrowed in May 2025, falling from ‑$7.6 billion in April to -$5.9 billion in May. In the US, job creation was strong in June, with 147,000 jobs added. According to Randall Forsyth of Barron's, there are several factors that make this result less impressive than it appears at first glance. S&P Global released its manufacturing PMI index, which stood at 49.0 in June, up 0.5 from May; this report remained in contraction for the fourth consecutive month. Elsewhere in the world, inflation in the Eurozone remained stable at an annual rate of 2.0%, up 0.1% from May. S&P Global also released its manufacturing PMI index for China, which rose above 50 in June to 50.4; the 50 mark is the threshold between contraction and growth: above 50 is growth. Over the next week, we will be watching: in Canada, the Ivey PMI index for June (Tuesday) and June employment data (Friday); in the US, the SME confidence index for June (Tuesday) and wholesale sales for May (Wednesday). Elsewhere in the world, retail sales for May in the Eurozone and the consumer price index in China.

Five of the six stock markets we track were up this week. The US markets posted the strongest gains, with the New York Stock Exchange up 1.7% and the NASDAQ 100 up 1.5%. The Shanghai Stock Exchange followed closely with a 1.4% increase, while the Toronto Stock Exchange advanced 1.3%. The Paris Stock Exchange rose modestly by 0.1%. The only stock market to decline was the Tokyo Stock Exchange, which fell -0.9%.

Yields on 10-year government bonds are up in three of the four highly rated countries we track, while Japanese bond yields remain unchanged. A rise in yields means that bond prices are falling, given the inverse relationship between bond yields and prices. The US bond yield, the main benchmark rate in the market, rose by 7 basis points to 4.35% (1 basis point = 0.01%). The Canadian bond yield rose by 3 basis points, putting the Canadian yield 105 basis points below the US yield. The yield on German bonds rose by 2 bps to 2.61%. The Japanese bond yield remained unchanged at 1.44%.

In the commodities market, three of the four commodities we track are up. US oil (WTI) is up 2.3%. Corn is up 2.1%, which market experts attribute to the fact that ownership of the crop has passed from farmers to commercial companies. The other commodity on the rise is gold, which has returned above the USD 3,300 threshold. Copper is the only commodity in our universe to decline, falling -1.2%.

In the cryptocurrency sector, the two cryptos we track are up: Bitcoin is up 0.6% and Ethereum is up 2.7%.

As of July 4, it costs 0.8¢ CAD less than on June 27 to buy a US dollar. The euro and the yen are also up against the US dollar, with the single European currency gaining 0.5% and the Japanese currency 0.1%.

See the detailed table by following this link:

https://iclf.ca/DL/BTTT_sommaire_marches_250704.pdf

Paul Bourget
Project Director, Bourstad
CIRANO
paul.bourget@cirano.qc.ca

About CIRANO (www.cirano.qc.ca )

The Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis of Organizations (CIRANO) is a multidisciplinary, liaison and transfer research center, whose mission is to accelerate the transfer of knowledge between the research community and users in industry and public services.

About BOURSTAD (www.bourstad.ca )

The Bourstad program is an activity of the Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis of Organizations (CIRANO) which receives support from many partners for this financial education project: the Autorité des marchés financiers, its main partner, TD Bank, CFA Montreal , the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO), Finance Montreal, TMX Group, Hyprasoft, Groupe Investissement responsable and QuoteMedia.