Bourstad stock market simulations - Summary of the markets for the week ended on December 12, 2025

Stocks, bonds, US dollar, and commodities down this week

Only crypto assets were up this week, while stocks, bonds, the US dollar, and commodities were down. In Canada, the Bank of Canada left its key interest rate unchanged, which was generally expected by economists. Canada's trade balance with foreign countries went from a deficit of CAD 6.4 billion in August to a surplus of CAD 0.2 billion in September. In the United States, it was noted that for the third consecutive meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered its key interest rate by 0.25%, which now stands within the range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The FOMC also released its growth forecasts for the coming years: 2025, 1.7%; 2026, 2.3%; 2027, 2.0%; 2028, 1.9%; long term, 1.8%. Core inflation forecasts were also published: 2025, 3%; 2026, 2.5%; 2027, 2.1%; and 2028, 2.0%. The results of the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) were also published, showing that job creation rose from 7,227 in August to 7,658 in September and 7,670 in October. Elsewhere in the world, in the United Kingdom, gross domestic product contracted by -0.1% in October, following a -0.1% decline in September 2025. Over the next week, we will be watching: in Canada, home resales, building permits in November, manufacturing sales in October, and inflation in November (Monday) and retail sales in October 2025 (Friday); in the United States, employment data for November and retail sales for October 2025 (Tuesday), the consumer price index for November (Thursday), and home resales for November 2025 (Friday). Elsewhere in the world, we will also be monitoring: the European Central Bank (ECB) will hold a monetary policy meeting where few new measures are expected, and the Bank of Japan, the central bank in that country, where a 0.25% increase in the key interest rate is expected. In Japan, the country's statistics agency will release the inflation rate for October 2025. S&P Global will release the composite PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) for the Eurozone and Japan. Several indicators for China in November will also be released: retail sales, industrial production, and the unemployment rate.

Four of the six stock markets we track were down this week. The Toronto and Tokyo stock exchanges rose 0.7% and were the only two exchanges to post gains. The Shanghai Stock Exchange was down -0.3%, while the Paris and New York stock exchanges fell -0.6%. The NASDAQ 100 technology stock market fell -1.9%.

Yields on 10-year government bonds rose in three of the four highly rated countries we track, while Japan's yield remained unchanged. A rise in yield means that the price of a bond is falling, given the inverse relationship between rates and bond prices. The U.S. bond rate, the main benchmark rate on the market, rose 4 basis points to 4.18% (1 basis point or bp = 0.01%). The Canadian bond rate jumped 3 bps, putting the Canadian rate 77 bps below the US rate. The German bond yield rose 6 bps to 2.86%. Although the Japanese rate remained unchanged, it now stands at 1.96%.

In the commodities market, three of the four commodities we track are down. Only gold is up this week, closing in on $3,300. Corn is down -0.9%, while copper is down -1.9%. U.S. oil is down -4.4%, which is likely due to negotiations to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.

In the cryptocurrency sector, the two cryptos we track are up: Bitcoin is up 1.0% and Ethereum is up 2.1%.

As of December 12, it costs CAD 0.4¢ less than on December 5 to buy one US dollar. The euro and the yen are moving in opposite directions to the US dollar: the single European currency is up 0.8% and the Japanese currency is down -0.3%.

See the detailed table by following this link:

https://iclf.ca/DL/BTTT_sommaire_marches_251205.pdf

Paul Bourget
Project Director, Bourstad
CIRANO
paul.bourget@cirano.qc.ca

About CIRANO (www.cirano.qc.ca )

The Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis of Organizations (CIRANO) is a multidisciplinary, liaison and transfer research center, whose mission is to accelerate the transfer of knowledge between the research community and users in industry and public services.

About BOURSTAD (www.bourstad.ca )

The Bourstad program is an activity of the Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis of Organizations (CIRANO) which receives support from many partners for this financial education project: the Autorité des marchés financiers, its main partner, TD Bank Group, CFA Montreal , the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO), Finance Montreal, TMX Group, Hyprasoft, Groupe Investissement responsable and QuoteMedia.