Bourstad stock market simulations - Summary of the markets for the week ended on January 16, 2026

US dollar and crypto assets up, stocks down, bonds and commodities without clear direction

The US dollar and crypto assets ended the week higher, while stocks were down this week. Bonds and commodities ended without clear direction. In Canada, manufacturing sales declined in November, down -1.2% from October 2025. Data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) also showed that the market for residential sales recorded in December 2025 on MLS systems declined 2.7% month-over-month. In Canada, housing starts also ended the year on a strong note with phenomenal growth in 2025. In the United States, inflation based on the full basket rose to 3.0% on an annual basis in December 2025, while inflation excluding volatile items, i.e., food and energy, also reached 3.0% on an annual basis. However, retail sales in November 2025 rose 0.6%, in line with economists' median forecast of a 0.5% increase. The industrial price index rose 0.2% in November, in line with consensus forecasts. Elsewhere in the world, no significant news caught our attention this week. This week, we will be paying particular attention to: in Canada, the industrial price index and materials price index for December (Wednesday) and retail sales for November (Friday); in the United States, mortgage applications for January (Wednesday), annualized gross domestic product for the third quarter of 2025 and personal income for November 2025 (Thursday), and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for January (Friday). Elsewhere in the world, we will also be monitoring: China's fourth-quarter 2025 gross domestic product, S&P Global's composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January for the Eurozone and Japan. Also in Japan, December 2025 consumer price index data will be released, and the country's central bank will hold a monetary policy meeting to clarify its intentions regarding a possible tightening of the key interest rate in 2026..

Four of the six stock markets we track were down this week. The Tokyo Stock Exchange posted the strongest gain, jumping 3.8%. The Toronto Stock Exchange followed at a distance with a 1.3% increase. The New York Stock Exchange fell 0.4%, while the Shanghai Stock Exchange posted a loss of 0.5%. The NASDAQ 100 fell 0.9%, while the Paris Stock Exchange was down 1.2%.

Yields on 10-year government bonds are down for three of the four highly rated countries we track. A decline in yield means that the price of a bond is rising, given the inverse relationship between yields and bond prices. The U.S. bond yield, the main benchmark rate in the market, is up -2 bps to 4.18% (1 basis point or bps = 0.01%). The Canadian bond yield is down -8 bps, putting the Canadian yield79 bps below the US yield. The German bond yield is down -4 bps to 2.87%. The Japanese yield is up 2 bps to 2.10%.

On the commodities market, two of the four commodities we track are up. The commodities most closely followed by the financial press are on the rise, with gold up 1.9% and approaching the USD 4,600 threshold, while oil ended the week at USD 59.44, up 0.5%. Copper fell by -1.3% and corn by -4.7%.

In the cryptocurrency sector, the two cryptos we track are up: bitcoin by 5.9% and ethereum by 6.8%.

As of January 16, it costs the same amount as on January 9 to buy one US dollar. The euro and the yen are down against the US dollar: the single European currency is down -0.3% and the Japanese currency is down -0.2%.

See the detailed table by following this link:

https://iclf.ca/DL/BTTT_sommaire_marches_260116.pdf

Paul Bourget
Project Director, Bourstad
CIRANO
paul.bourget@cirano.qc.ca

About CIRANO (www.cirano.qc.ca )

The Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis of Organizations (CIRANO) is a multidisciplinary, liaison and transfer research center, whose mission is to accelerate the transfer of knowledge between the research community and users in industry and public services.

About BOURSTAD (www.bourstad.ca )

The Bourstad program is an activity of the Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis of Organizations (CIRANO) which receives support from many partners for this financial education project: the Autorité des marchés financiers, its main partner, TD Bank Group, CFA Montreal , the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO), Finance Montreal, TMX Group, Hyprasoft, Groupe Investissement responsable and QuoteMedia.