Bourstad stock market simulations - Summary of the markets for the week ended on January 30, 2026

Stocks, bonds, US dollar, and commodities down

Stocks, bonds, the US dollar, commodities, and crypto assets were down this week. In Canada, gross domestic product by industry stagnated, growing only 0.0%, which is below forecasts of a 0.1% increase for November 2025. Canada's international trade data with other countries for November 2025 was also noteworthy, with Canada experiencing a trade deficit of CAD 2.2 billion during that month. The Bank of Canada also kept its key interest rate unchanged at 2.25%. In the United States, the Federal Reserve kept its target range unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. After falling -2.1% the previous month, durable goods orders rose 5.3% in November 2025. Consumer confidence deteriorated sharply in January 2026, according to the Conference Board, falling to 84.5, down 9.7 points from the revised level of 94.2 in December 2025. Economic activity in the euro area continued to grow at a moderate and steady pace in the fourth quarter of 2025. For 2025 as a whole, Eurozone GDP grew by 1.5%. The European Central Bank (ECB) survey of inflation expectations remains stable but shows signs of strengthening in the medium term; inflation expectations remained stable at 2.8%, while three-year expectations rose slightly from 2.5% to 2.6%. Over the next week, we will be watching: in Canada, employment data and the Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January 2026 (Friday); in the United States, employment data for January 2026 and the consumer sentiment index for February 2026 (Friday). Elsewhere in the world, we will also be watching for January inflation data and December 2025 retail sales for the Eurozone. The European Central Bank's first monetary policy meeting is also on the agenda. In addition, S&P Global will publish the composite PMI index for several countries, including China.

Four of the six stock markets we track were down this week. The Toronto Stock Exchange rose the most this week, up 2.4%. The other stock market to rise was the New York Stock Exchange, which gained 0.3%. The Paris Stock Exchange lost -0.1%, while the NASDAQ 100 fell -0.2%. Asian stock markets, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Tokyo Stock Exchange, lost -0.4% and -1.0% respectively.

Yields on 10-year government bonds are down for two of the four highly rated countries we track, while Canada's bond yield remains unchanged. A decline in yield means that the price of a bond is rising, given the inverse relationship between bond rates and prices. The U.S. bond rate, the main benchmark in the market, rose 1 bps to 4.24% (1 basis point or bps = 0.01%). The Canadian bond rate is 3.42%, which is 82 bps lower than the U.S. rate. The yield on German bonds fell by -6 bps to 2.85%. The Japanese rate is down -1 bps to 2.25%.

In the commodities market, three of the four commodities we track are down. U.S. oil (WTI) is up 6.8% to $65.21. Copper is down -0.4% while corn is down -0.5%. Gold, which crossed the $5,000 threshold during the week, ended down -1.9% at $4,894. USD, a decline of 93 USD; however, it should be noted that gold is trading at around 4,900 USD.

In the cryptocurrency sector, the two cryptos we track are down: bitcoin is down -6.2% and ethereum is down -8.0%.

On January 30, it cost CAD 0.6¢ less than on January 23 to buy one US dollar. In contrast, the euro and the yen are down against the US dollar: the single European currency is down -0.2% and the Japanese currency is down -0.6%.

See the detailed table by following this link:

https://iclf.ca/DL/BTTT_sommaire_marches_260130.pdf

Paul Bourget
Project Director, Bourstad
CIRANO
paul.bourget@cirano.qc.ca

About CIRANO (www.cirano.qc.ca )

The Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis of Organizations (CIRANO) is a multidisciplinary, liaison and transfer research center, whose mission is to accelerate the transfer of knowledge between the research community and users in industry and public services.

About BOURSTAD (www.bourstad.ca )

The Bourstad program is an activity of the Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis of Organizations (CIRANO) which receives support from many partners for this financial education project: the Autorité des marchés financiers, its main partner, TD Bank Group, CFA Montreal , the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO), Finance Montreal, TMX Group, Hyprasoft, Groupe Investissement responsable and QuoteMedia.