Bourstad stock market simulations - Summary of the markets for the week ended on March 6, 2026

Stocks and bonds down, commodities without clear direction

Stocks and bonds were down this week, while commodities moved without clear direction. Meanwhile, the US dollar and crypto assets were up. In Canada, attention focused on a speech given at an event in Norway by Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki at an event in Norway, in which she emphasized the following points:

·         Maintaining the inflation target through a strong balance sheet

·         Essential flexibility in a context of structural change

·         Policy guidance can sometimes seem counterintuitive

·         Real-time assessments are difficult

·         Inflation increases should not be trivialized.

It was also noted in Canada that productivity gains declined by -0.5% in the fourth quarter according to S&P Global; this data is part of the manufacturing sector's PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index). In the United States, BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) employment data show that employment fell by -92K, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.4%. Elsewhere in the world, the United States and Israel have declared war on Iran, beginning with the decapitation of the mullahs' regime. In India, the economic situation is encouraging, global manufacturing conditions have also improved, with the PMI index rising from 50.9 to 51.9. Over the next week, we will be monitoring: in Canada, the trade balance with other countries in January (Thursday), and manufacturing sales in January and employment data for February 2026 (Friday); in the United States, February home resales (Tuesday), the February consumer price index (Wednesday), the January trade balance with other countries (Thursday), and January manufacturing sales and the core personal consumption expenditure price index (Friday). Elsewhere in the world, we will also be paying attention to data on industrial production in January in the Eurozone; in China, the event to watch will be the release of the consumer price index for February 2026.

The six stock markets we track were down this week. The Shanghai Stock Exchange limited its loss to less than -1.0% with a decline of -0.9%. The NASDAQ 100 followed with a decline of -1.3%, while the New York Stock Exchange fell by -2.0%. The Toronto Stock Exchange was down -3.7%, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange was down -5.5%. The worst decline was recorded on the Paris Stock Exchange, which fell by -6.8%.

Yields on 10-year government bonds are up for the four highly rated countries we track. A rise in yield means that the price of a bond is falling, given the inverse relationship between bond rates and prices. The U.S. bond rate, the main benchmark rate in the market, is up 18 bps to 4.13% (1 basis point or bps = 0.01%). The Canadian bond rate is up 28 bps to 3.41%, giving Canada a rate 73 bps below the US rate. The German bond yield is up 21 bps to 2.86%. The Japanese rate is up 5 bps to 2.17%.

In the commodities market, the four commodities we track are up. US oil (WTI) is up 35.6% to USD $90.90. Corn is up 2.7% to USD $4.61 per bushel. Gold, which had been performing well recently, fell by 2.0% and is trading below USD $5,200 for the first time since March 2, 2026, at USD 5 172. Copper is down 4.2% to close at USD $5.81.

In the cryptocurrency sector, the two cryptos we are tracking are down: Bitcoin is down -3.1% at USD $68 131 and Ethereum is down -1.7% at USD $1 983,93.

As of March 6, it costs CAD 0.8¢ less than on February 27 to buy one US dollar. In contrast, the euro and the yen are up against the US dollar: the single European currency by 1.6% and the Japanese currency by 1.1%.

See the detailed table by following this link:

https://iclf.ca/DL/BT26_sommaire_marches_260306.pdf

Paul Bourget
Ex-Project Director, Bourstad
CIRANO
paul.bourget@cirano.qc.ca

About CIRANO (www.cirano.qc.ca )

The Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis of Organizations (CIRANO) is a multidisciplinary, liaison and transfer research center, whose mission is to accelerate the transfer of knowledge between the research community and users in industry and public services.

About BOURSTAD (www.bourstad.ca )

The Bourstad program is an activity of the Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis of Organizations (CIRANO) which receives support from many partners for this financial education project: the Autorité des marchés financiers, its main partner, TD Bank Group, CFA Montreal , the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO), Finance Montreal, TMX Group, Hyprasoft, Groupe Investissement responsable and QuoteMedia.